Pech...

Nie mogę tego inaczej nazwać. Wczorajszy kupon po raz kolejny okazał się przegrany... 13 spotkań, z których nie wszedł zaledwie (!) jeden. Rezai, dziękuję... Za walkę, za przywrócenie wiary po wygraniu kilku gemów pod rząd przy stanie 5-2 dla rywalki w 2 secie. Trudno. Może dziś?

BAGHDATIS-HEWITT
Marcos Baghdatis had quite a scare in his match against Marat Safin, but in the end the Cypiot defeated the multi Grand Slam champion. Baghdatis loves to play on this tournament and he has reached the final in here in 2006. The hundreds of Greek immigrants in Australia support him like no other crowd in the other and he is really playing well right now. His serve is working, his backhand and even his inconsistent forehand. He had two very tough matches against two former Grand Slam winners (Thomas Johansson; Marat Safin) in the first two rounds of this tournament, so he will be adapted to play against a good player and he won't need to step it up today. The same doesn't happen with Lleyton Hewitt. He had two very easy first rounds against Steve Darcis and Denis Istomin, in matches where Hewitt won without having to play well, especially against Istomin. Hewitt is having a weak 2008 until now, with crushing defeats at the hands of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Chris Guccione. He is far from the level that took him to the first position in the rankings and he was never impressive on the Australian Open during his career. For example he hasn't reached fourth round in here since 2005, something that doesn't happen in the other three Grand Slams where the last time he hasn't reached fourth round in them was at Wimbledon'03. Pressure from playing at home? Baghdatis is playing way better than Hewitt this week and I don't see the Australian player being able to step it up today and play his A game. The Cypriot has destroyed Hewitt at Wimbledon in 2006 and he should be able to do it again, as the slow surface helps him more than Hewitt. Take Baghdatis minus the games in here.

WOZNIACKI-LISIAK
The difference between these two players is huge. Wozniacki comes from beating Alona Bondarenko in straight sets, showing some maturity, as she was a break down in the first set and she was still able to recover and win the match in just two sets. This is her first Grand Slam 3rd round match for her, but her opponent is at the same situation as the Danish player. Wozniacki had a terrible draw, as she had to face two Top 40 players in the first two rounds (Dulko, Alona), but she has proved once again that she is extremely talented by being capable of handle such hard task. She hits very hard from the baseline and she has way more experience than her experience at WTA level than her today's opponent. Sabine Lisicki has basically no experience at this level and after taking advantage the fact that Safina destroyed herself in the first round, she defeated Mariya Koryttseva in the second round, another player who lacks experience and talent to play at this level. Lisicki has no weapons to hurt such talented player as Wozniacki and she could only win this match thanks to a huge amount of errors by Wozniacki, something hugely unlikely, as the Danish player is in great shape. Wozniacki is clearly the better player of the two and Lisicki doesn't have the talent and the experience to create problems to her. Take the Danish player to win in straight sets in here.

Smiechu warte?

Kolejny, tym razem nieco dłuższy kupon na dziś. Może wreszcie teraz?! 30-40 % szans! Kilka analiz do postawionych spotkań poniżej.

DEMENTIEVA-PEER
Probably the big news for Dementieva is that she didn't hit a single double fault in her second round match against Anabel Medina Garrigues. The Russian player still dropped the first set, but she was facing someone who is tricky to play and is a Top 35 player. A third round match in a Grand Slam is something natural for Dementieva, who is one of the best players in the WTA circuit for almost 8 years. She is capable of hitting very hard from the baseline and she is also known for being a warrior and being capable of recovering from unbelievable situations. This kind of surface suits her game, as it gives her time to prepare her powerful strokes. She didn't have a nice beginning of 2007, but she improved a lot at the end of last year and she was capable of winning a Tier I (Moscow) by destroying Serena Williams in the final. She is 5-2 ATS against players between the places 10 and 19 in the rankings in the last twelve months. Shahar Peer is far from the level she has presented at last year's Australian Open. The fighting spirit is still there and that was the main reason why she was capable of defeating Dinara Safina at the Gold Coast for example, but her game is being too erratic for a player who has in her consistency as her major weapon on the court. The fact that she was already destroyed by Viktoria Azarenka (a player who is capable of hitting consistent powerful strokes from the baseline like Dementieva) by 6:4 6:2 this season shows that her amazing defensive game isn't enough to counter the powerful game of some of her opponents. She may return a lot of balls, but if she can't counter and her opponents don't commit unforced errors, it comes to a point where Peer won't be able to return the ball anymore. Dementieva is the most experienced player of the two and the new surfaces suits her more than the Israeli player. Peer struggles against powerful and consistent baseline hitters (0-2 vs Dementieva, 0-1 vs Azarenka, 0-3 vs Serena, 0-2 vs Hantuchova - in matches outside clay) and it shouldn't be different time this time. Take Dementieva minus the games in here.

MATHIEU-KOUBEK
If there is something, Paul-Henri Mathieu can do on a court is return serve. He is winning more than 40% of the points played on his opponent's service games, something remarkable as we are talking about matches played on hardcourt. The French player is always dangerous to face on a fast surface, as he can hit very well from both wings and he is always capable of hitting a winner from any place of the court. Mathieu has only been broken twice this week (once in each match he has already played in here) and his service stats have been pretty consistent. That's pretty good for him, as there is always a chance of him breaking his opponent's serve everytime it's his time to return. The French player is 5-1 ATS (last 6) vs left handed players outside clay. He is also 4-1 ATS (last 5) on Grand Slam third rounds. Stefan Koubek has defeated two players with a better ranking than already him this week, but getting a third one today seems hugely unlikely. Carlos Moya has always been a great matchup for him and Agustin Calleri can always screw himself everytime he is in a position to win a set in an important match. The Austrian player hasn't been impressive on his serve and that's bad news for him, when he will face one of the best returners in the world. His serve is attackable and his great defensive game won't help him a lot against such consistent player from the baseline as Mathieu. Paul-Henri Mathieu is clearly the better player of the two on hardcourt and he is also the one who has been more impressive this week. He should be also the player of the two will less problems in holding serve, in a game that may be close from having more than ten breaks. Take Mathieu in here minus the games.

YOUZHNY-KARLOVIC
Mikhail Youzhny is having a great beginning of this season, as he is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in 2008. Youzhny is a typical bad matchup for big servers, especially in a relative slow surface as this one. Youzhny is capable of hitting very well from both wings and he is also a good servers, especially against weak returners as big serves use to be. Youzhny is the typical player who is pretty hard to stop, when he has the momentum on his side and it should be no exception in this tournament. Ivo Karlovic is clearly struggling this week, even though he has reached a Grand Slam third round for the first time in years. The reason? The lack of aces. He has hit 34 aces in two matches until now (8 sets played). This is good, but not for his standards. At last season's US Open, he had 38 in one match (5 sets), in Wimbledon in 1 match he had 31 aces (5 sets) and even at Roland Garros he hit 52 aces in 2 matches (9 sets). That's weak if we compare to his normal numbers. The reason for this? According to him, the surface is too slow and he is struggling with the heat and humidity that Australian always offers at this time of the season. The fact that this game will be played at the hours where the temperatures reach their highest point won't help him neither. Youzhny is clearly the player who has been more impressive and with Karlovic lacking aces, he is going to have a great shot to break his serve. Also Karlovic is on a 5 tie-break losing streak, something that makes Youzhny also a favorite if a tie-break is played today. Youzhny should win this match and cover this small handicap. Take Youzhny minus the games in here. DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

TSONGA-GARCIA-LOPEZ
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is playing extremely well this week and it looks like he has no problems in handling the pressure everytime he is the favorite to win a match on a Grand Slam. He is 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS and won all 5 matches 3-0 in sets, everytime he is a favorite in a Grand Slam match. That's remarkable. Tsonga is serving well and he must be quite confident after taking out Andy Murray in the first round and being capable of defeating Sam Warburg without dropping a set. He is putting an average of 60% first serves in and winning an average of 76% of these points, something that will turn him quite hard to break on this match, especially at this stats include a match against the best returner of fast surfaces in the world, Andy Murray. His powerful baseline game will leave Garcia-Lopez without any chance in being aggressive in this match, something that he won't like, as he will never be able to get his normal rhythm during the game. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will play his first ever third round match on a Grand Slam, but he had to work a lot to reach this stage of the competition. The Spanish player had two very hard matches against Juan Ignacio Chela and Alejandro Falla, baseline contests where he had to run a lot and he should feel already a little bit tired, thanks to his good effort this week. The main problem with Garcia-Lopez is being his serve and he was already broken 11 times this week, unlike Tsonga who was only broken by 6 times and 5 of them were against Andy Murray, who is a world class returner. The Spanish player is 4-18 SU vs good servers outside clay, which doesn't surprise me, as this type of players is a bad matchup for him, as he struggles to break serve against such good servers and his service games are always in jeopardy, as he is far from being a good server. Garcia-Lopez will win less than 50% of the points played on his 2nd serve, while that won't happen with Tsonga, who has a good second serve. Also Garcia-Lopez will mostly have a worse 1st serves in percentage than Tsonga and he will need to use his 2nd serve more than the French player. Tsonga has a more powerful game than Garcia-Lopez and he is also the better player on this surface. If a tie-break is played, Tsonga will be the clear favorite to win, as he is 8-1 on tie-breaks played on hardcourt in the last twelve months. Garcia-Lopez may be a tough opponent in the beginning of the match, but if Tsonga is capable of winning the first set (most likely by a break of difference or in a tie-break), then the resistance of the Spanish player will diminish. Take the French player to win in straight sets in here.

CANADIENS-TRASHERS
Though not normally considered a defensive team, Atlanta is playing much better defense of late. Take the Under tonight when the Thrashers host the Montreal Canadiens.

Led by sniper Ilya Kovalchuk, the Thrashers aren't normally thought of as a "defensive" team. However, they've actually been playing rather well at that end of the ice recently. In fact, despite slipping above the number on Tuesday, Atlanta has seen the Under go 3-1 their last four games.

The Montreal Canadiens saw their streak of high-scoring games come to an end when they managed only one goal en route to a 4-1 loss at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. The Canadiens' power play, which had been clicking, produced just one goal on eight opportunities. That goal came in the third period with the Rangers leading 4-0.

Note that Montreal also came up empty on two 5-on-3 advantages totaling 2:44 in time. The Canadiens followed that up by combining with the Islanders for just four goals on Tuesday.

Looking at the series history, we find that both of this season's meeting produced five combined goals. Looking back further and we find the Under at an impressive 10-1-1 the last dozen times that these teams faced each other. Consider a play on the Under.

Impossible is nothing!

Jestem świeżo po transmisji meczu siatkówki pomiędzy Holandią a Turcją. Jestem w szoku. Gigantycznym. Sam chciałem zagrać typ Poniżej 160.5 punktów za naprawdę duże pieniądze, ale (dziękuje!) na szczęście, nie zdążyłem, z powodu studiów. MASAKRA! W pierwszym secie Turczynki zagrały jak licealistki na WFie. Potem role się odwróciły. I Holenderki zagrały jak... gimnazjalistki, na dodatek z bólem brzucha i bez jednej ręki. Impossible is nothing! Dziś, niestety (znowu) z braku czasu, podaję tylko przygotowany od wczoraj kupon, który wydaje mi się po prostu świetną propozycją na dziś dzień. Statycznie wygląda bombowo! Chociaż, Holandia również tak wyglądała... Oby już bez niespodzianek/sensacji!

6 pts Jedenastak @ 27.30 (Unibet)
Jużny, M - Karlovic, I -- 1 @ 1.46
Azarenka, V - Williams, Serena -- Over 19 Games @ 1.8
Henin, J - Schiavone, F -- 1 @ 1.03
Vesnina, E - Sharapova, M -- 2 @ 1.02
Słowenia - Czechy -- Under 62.5 @ 1.65
Real Madryt - Winterthur F.C. Barcelona -- 1 @ 1.35
Cibona Vip Zagrzeb - Maccabi Elite Tel Aviv (Liczba zbiórek) -- Cibona +5.5 @ 1.85
Panathinaikos - Roanne (Liczba zbiórek) -- Under 65.5 @ 1.85
LaFortezza Virtus Bologna - Montepaschi Siena -- 2 @ 1.08
TAU Ceramica - Union Olimpija -- 1 @ 1.03
Hiszpania - Węgry -- 1 @ 1.1
Vaidisova, N - Sugiyama, A -- 1 @ 1.06

ULEBowa masakra zysków!

Jak już wczoraj wspomniałem, zrobiłem dogłębną analize wszystkich spotkań ULEBowych. Posłużyłem się do tego m.in. zapowiedziami na stronie oficjalnej, najciekawsze-najbardziej istotne fragmenty wklejam poniżej. Do tego oczywiście mój typ. Wygląda bosko!

PGE Turów Zgorzelec - Unics Kazan
PGE Turow Zgorzelec has already clinched first place in Group I and mainly hopes to avoid any serious injuries as it hosts Unics Kazan. Head coach Saso Filipovski's Turow used a big fourth quarter to come back and beat Strasbourg on the road to improve to 7-1 - with a three-game lead on three teams. The Polish side survived getting out-shot 40%-44% and committing 18 turnovers as Strasbourg turned the ball over 20 times.
Unics Kazan meanwhile still has plenty to play for as it's fighting for a spot in the elimination rounds. Head coach Aco Petrovic's Kazan thrashed Hapoel Jerusalem at home to improve to 4-4 with its third victory in four games. The Russian side shot 55% from the floor, held Hapoel to 31% shooting, out-rebounded Jerusalem 49-25 and forced 19 turnovers.
A victory and a Jersusalem loss at Zadar would be enough for a spot in the elimination rounds already on Tuedsay night.

6 pts Kazan @ 1.6 -- PROMOCJA!

Alba Berlin - Turk Telekom
Alba Berlin can take a giant step towards reaching the elimination round with a victory at home over Turk Telekom in Group A.
Sunter's Turkish team is still in the running for the top spot in Group A and a loss would be a major blow. So expect Telekom to look to prove again it can win even without Michael Wright.

5 pts Alba @ 1.8

DKV Joventut - KK Bosna
DKV Joventut looks to rebound from its first loss and remain atop Group A as it hosts KK Bosna.
With Siauliai also at 3-5 and both teams a game behind Alba Berlin with two games to play, a victory on the road against a top Joventut is basically a must for Zdovc's team.

4 pts Bosna (+20.5) @ 1.9

Elan Chalon - BK Ventspils
Elan Chalon needs a victory to stay in the race for the elimination round as it hosts BK Ventspils in Group B.
Okorn knows the key for his team's showing against Elan will be defense. If Ventspils can match its performance from Week 4, chances are high for a win.

5 pts Under 154 @ 1.9

FMP - Köln 99ers
FMP will try its best to act as spoiler as it welcomes the Köln 99ers in a Group B encounter.
Obradovic knows that that kind of balance would go a long way to leading Köln into the elimination rounds.

Hanzevast Capitals - BC Hemofarm Stada
As many teams this time of year, Hanzevast Capitals is playing for big-game experience as it hosts BC Hemofarm Stada in Group C.
With a tough game next week at home against Galatasaray, the last thing Hemofarm wants this week is an upset on the road.

6 pts Hemofarm @ 1.2

SLUC Nancy - D. Bank Skyliners
SLUC Nancy must win at home against Deutsche Bank Skyliners if it wants to remain in the running for the elimination round from Group D.
But Skyliners can play spoiler to Nancy and finally give its fans a reason to celebrate.

6 pts Nancy @ 1.1

Asvel Basket - ASCO Slask Wroclaw
Asvel Basket can book its spot in the elimination round with a victory at home over ASCO Slask Wroclaw in Group G.
Slask's ball-handling must improve it is wants to stay in the running for the elimination round.

Pau-Orthez - ASK Riga
Pau-Orthez hopes to finally gather another victory as it hosts ASK Riga in Group H.
Riga meanwhile is still alive in the race for the elimination round - though it needs plenty of help. ASK is out if it loses this week and Artland Dragons beats Benetton Tamoil.
Riga hopes it can take advantage of Pau's turbulent season and remain alive in the race for the next round.

EiffelTowers Den Bosch - Strasbourg
EiffelTowers Den Bosch has been relegated to spoiler as it hosts Strasbourg in a battle of the bottom two teams in Group I.
Strasbourg meanwhile is still alive for a spot in the elimination rounds.
Strasbourg would lose all chances of advancing if it loses and both Unics and Zadar win on Tuesday.

Zadar - Hapoel Jerusalem
Either Zadar or Hapoel Jerusalem will have good chances of advancing to the elimination round from Group I as the two face off in Croatia.
Petrovic's team will be looking to avenge its 1-point loss at Jerusalem in Week 4, when Hapoel shot 52% and committed just 9 turnovers. But these teams have gone in different directions since that game - Zadar winning three out of its last four and Jerusalem losing three from its last four. Zadar will move into the next round with a win and a Strasbourg loss at EiffelTowes. Meanwhile head coach Dan Shamir's Jerusalem will clinch a spot in the elimination rounds with a win. However the Israeli side arrives in Croatia short-handed with only seven senior players. Hapoel is desperately missing its star power forward Jamie Arnold, who averaged nearly 20 points, 6 rebounds, 2 steals and 1 block in the first six games.
Shamir would like nothing more than his team to quickly forget the Kazan game and re-focus on Zadar, knowing Jerusalem still has everything to play for.

6 pts Zadar @ 1.2

Khimki - Anwil Wloclawek
Khimki can remain atop Group D with a victory at home over Anwil Wloclawek. In fact, Khimki would clinch first place if it wins and Pamesa Valencia loses at Azovmash Mariupol in another Group D clash on Tuesday.
But Pipan's team would need a miracle to advance to the next round. Its two-game winning streak seems to have come too late.

4 pts Under 160 @ 1.9

Dynamo Moscow - Panellinios GS
Dynamo Moscow could possibly clinch first place in Group F as it hosts Panellinios GS. Head coach Svetislav Pesic's Dynamo grabbed an impressive win at Red Star to improve to 6-2 - one game ahead of both Red Star and CEZ Nymburk.
After registering the big win at Red Star, the last thing Pesic wants is his team to get upset at home. Panellinios meanwhile is looking to finally win again. After winning the first week, the Greek side has lost seven straight games - the latest coming at home against CEZ Nymburk to drop to 1-7.
But it will need a full 40 minutes of top basketball to finally snap its losing streak.

6 pts Dynamo @ 1.05

Benetton Tamoil - Artland Dragons
Benetton Tamoil will try to move into the elimination rounds with a victory at home over Artland Dragons on Tuesday. Head coach Oktay Mahmuti's Benetton captured its fourth straight win by beating Lukoil Academic to improve to 5-3.
Treviso lost the first match-up in Week 4 in Germany as Artland shot 57% and won the rebound battle 33-17. But this is a different, more confident Benetton side. Artland meanwhile desperately needs a victory to stay in the running for the elimination rounds.
Since beating Treviso, head coach Chris Fleming's Dragons have lost three of four games, including a loss last week at ASK Riga, to fall to 4-4 - one game behind Benetton and Lukoil Academic.
Unless Artland can pull off a tough win on the road, it will be left thinking "what if" after starting the ULEB Cup season at 3-1.

6 pts Treviso @ 1.15
5 pts Under @ 1.9

Guildford Heat - Siauliai
Guildford Heat looks to play spoiler in Group A as it hosts Siauliai. Hed coach Paul James's Heat remained one of three teams without a victory as it lost at home against Alba Berlin to drop to 0-8. The British champs shot just 40% for the game and committed 16 turnovers and it allowed Berlin to hit 49% from the floor.
James's team has one final chance to give its home fans a ULEB Cup victory to celebrate - so look for Guildford to fight even harder. Siauliai meanwhile is still fighting for the elimination round despite losing last week at KK Bosna to drop to 3-5.
With Bosna also at 3-5 and both teams a game behind Alba Berlin with two games to play, a victory on the road against a winless Heat is basically a must for Kuncaitis's team.

...

Ovarense Aerosoles - Besiktas Cola Turka
Ovarense Aerosoles has one final chance to give its home fans a ULEB Cup victory as it hopes to upset the only remaining undefeated team Besiktas Cola Turka in Group B action. Coach Mario Leite's Ovarense dropped to 0-8 on the season by losing at Elan Chalon. The Portuguese side shot just 35% from the floor and forced just 9 Chalon turnovers in the defeat.
Leite's team has averaged a losing margin of 16 points. Aerosoles lost by 26 points at Besiktas in Week Four as it shot 39% and committed 24 turnovers. If it comes anywhere near those numbers, Ovarense will have no chance of grabbing victory number one. Besiktas meanwhile has already clinched first place in Group B.
Ataman's troops would like to remain undefeated just as much as Ovarense wants to win its first game. And unless Aerosoles play the game of its life, this one should be victory number nine for Besiktas.

Akasvayu Girona - Spirou Charleroi
Akasvayu Girona hopes to secure first place in Group C as it entertains Spirou Charleroi. Akasvayu can clinch first place if it wins and Hemofarm loses to Hanzevast Capitals.
Martinez knows that kind of production will be crucial as it hosts Spirou. In Akasvayu's Week 4 victory in Charleroi, Martinez's men committed 21 turnovers, but managed to win by 3cpoints, mainly because its defense held Spirou to just 42% shooting for the game. A similar showing should be enough at home.
Spirou Charleroi comes into the game on a high after beating Galatasaray at home to remain alive in the race for the top three with a 3-5 record. It must win its final two games and hope that Galatasaray loses both contests.
Against Galatasaray, Eddy Casteels's team shot 44% for the game while holding Galatasaray to just 34% from the floor
Spirou needs help to reach the next round, but it will have to take of its own business first - and a showdown at Girona is difficult enough.

5 pts Under @ 1.9

Galatasaray Cafe Crown - CSU Asesoft
Galatasaray Cafe Crown looks to book its spot in the elimination round as it hosts CSU Asesoft in Group C. Head coach Murat Ozyer's Galatasaray suffered a setback last week, losing at Spirou Charleroi to fall to 5-3. The Turkish side shot 34% for the game while Spirou hit 44% of its shots.
Ozyer's team will have to bounce back at home against Asesoft, but knows it will move on with a victory or a 1-point loss and a Spirou defeat. Still, Ozyer wants his men to concentrate on beating CSU. Asesoft meanwhile will be looking for revenge of its 2-point loss at home in Week 4 as Galatasaray shot 58% from the floor and committed just 8 turnovers. Head coach Mladan Jojic's Asesoft dropped to 3-5 in a home loss against Hemofarm. But the Romanian team still has chances of finishing in the top three with a victory on the road.
A victory on the road however is a must.

6 pts CSU (+14.5) @ 1.9
3 pts CSU @ 7.50

Azovmash Mariupol - Pamesa Valencia
Azovmash Mariupol can clinch a berth in the elimination round with a home victory over Pamesa Valencia in Group D. Head coach Rimas Girskis's Azovmash collected an important win at home against Nancy to improve to 5-3 - with a two-game lead over Nancy with two games left. Azovmash will also advance if Nancy loses either of its final two matches.
Head coach Fotos Katsikaris's Pamesa Valencia comes into the game looking to rebound from a road loss at Anwil Wloclawek that dropped it to 6-2 - one win behind leader Khimki. The Spanish side was out-rebounded 33-26 and forced just 8 Anwil turnovers.
A victory would guarantee that Pamesa would be playing for first place in Group D next week at home against Khimki. Katsikaris doesn't want his team to slip-up now.

Triumph Lyubertsy - Benetton Fribourg
Triumph Lyubertsy can clinch first place in Group E with a victory at home over Benetton Fribourg. Head coach Stanislav Eremin's Triumph improved to 7-1 with a hard-fought home win over Swans Gmunden. The Russian team won despite committing 17 turnovers, shooting just 6-of-25 (24%) from long range and making just 16-of-33 (48%) foul shots. But Triumph out-rebounded the Swans 37-30 and forced 18 turnovers.
Eremin's team is not just looking to clinch first place. Lyubertsy is also out for revenge for its only loss of the competition as Fribourg won at home against Eremin's men by just one point in Week Four. Lyubertsy was out-shot 47%-52% and Pascal Perrier-David knocked down a buzzer for the win. Benetton Fribourg meanwhile is looking to shake off a three-game losing streak and remain alive in the race for the elimination round. Head coach Damien Leyrolles's Fribourg lost on the road against Buducnost to drop to 3-5 - one game behind third placed Swans and even with Antwerp Giants. The Swiss champs shot just 37% and allowed Buducnost to hit 49% from the floor.
It will be a very difficult fight for Fribourg to knock off Triumph yet again.

Swans Gmunden - Antwerp Giants
Swans Gmunden will clinch a spot in the elimination rounds with a victory at home over Antwerp Giants in Group E. Head coach Bob Gonnen's Swans dropped to 4-4 despite giving Triumph Lyubertsy all it could handle.
Still, Gonnen's troops know they can book their ticket to the next round with a win at home. Antwerp Giants meanwhile must win on the road to remain alive for the elimination round. Head coach Sven Van Camp's Antwerp improved to 3-5 with a home win over Hapoel Galil Elyon. Both teams shot 47% from the field but Van Camp's Belgian side out-rebounded Galil Elyon 32-21 and forced 19 turnovers.
Giants is looking to sweep Swans after winning at home in Week Four as Antwerp forced 17 turnovers. Van Camp will need his defense to play like that again in order to remain alive.

5 pts Under @ 1.9

Hapoel Galil Elyon - KK Buducnost
Hapoel Galil Elyon is looking to snap a five-game losing streak when it hosts KK Buducnost in Group E. Coach Danny Franco's Galil Elyon fell to 1-7 after losing in the closing seconds at Antwerp Giants. Both teams shot 47% from the field but the Israeli club was out-rebounded 32-21 and Antwerp forced 19 turnovers. And Franco's team lost despite shooting 30-of-40 foul shots compared to 18-of-23 for Antwerp.
Franco's team has already been eliminated from the next round and is just hoping to get big-game experience and avoid injuries while giving its fans one last chance to celebrate a home victory. Buducnost has already booked its spot in the elimination round and still has a possibility to reach first place. Coach Dejan Radonjic's Montenegrin side improved to 6-2 - one game behind leader Triumph Lyubertsy - after a comfortable home victory over Benetton Fribourg.
Radonjic knows his team has already achieved its first goal of reaching the elimination round. But he doesn't want his players to let up now.

Telindus Oostende - CEZ Nymburk
Telindus Oostende needs a victory to remain alive for the elimination round as its hosts CEZ Nymburk in Group F. Head coach Sharon Drucker's Oostende survived a valiant comeback by Beghelli Bologna to improve to 4-4 - one game behind Red Star and Nymburk. The Belgian champs shot 51% from the floor while holding Bologna to just 42% for the game
With an elimination round spot still up for grabs, expect Drucker to have his men ready to play. CEZ Nymburk meanwhile will book its spot in the next round if it can extend its current winning streak to four games. The third straight victory forhead coach Muli Katzurin's Czech champs came at Panellinios. Nymburk shot 59% from the floor and forced 18 Panellinios turnovers in grabbing the road win.
Katzurin knows his defense spurred on the Week Four win at home. And Nymburk will have to defend well again to move into the next round.

6 pts under 156.5 @ 1.9

Beghelli Bologna - Red Star
Beghelli Bologna's chances of reaching the elimination round are very slim and a victory at home over Red Star in Group F is a must. Head coach Dragan Sakota's Bologna came up just short in a comeback attempt in losing at Telindus Oostende to drop to 3-5 - one game behind fourth-placed Oostende and two games adrift of Red Star and Nymburk. The Italian side allowed Oostende to shoot 51% from the floor while hitting just 42% for the game. Both teams committed 21 turnovers, but Bologna made just 6 of 11 (55%) free throws in the 2-point loss.
Bologna needs plenty of help to reach the next round and it will be looking for revenge of a 33-point loss at Red Star in Week 4. Bologna shot just 40% in that loss while Red Star went for 54% from the floor. Sakota's team will need to improve on its defense if it wants to even still have a chance in the final week. Red Star meanwhile can move into the next round with a victory. The club is looking to rebound after losing at home against Dynamo Moscow to drop to 5-3 - even with Nymburk one game behind Dynamo.
Red Star still has a chance to grab the top spot in Group F, but it first needs to return to its winning ways.

Panionios On Telecoms - G. Canaria Grupo Dunas
Panionios On Telecoms can clinch a spot in the elimination round and could even pull into first place in Group G with a home victory over Gran Canaria Grupo Dunas. Head coach Nenad Markovic's Panionios collected its fourth straight win by coming back to beat Asvel Basket on the road and improve to 5-3. The Greek team was out-shot 49%-53% but forced 18 Asvel turnovers in the win.
Panionios is looking for revenge after losing at Gran Canaria in Week 4. Gran Canaria out-shot Panionios 45%-43% but had a big advantage in free throws, making 22-of-27 to just 13-of-18 for Panionios. Markovic will be looking to improve on that at home. A victory and an Asvel loss will give Panionios a spot in the next round. Gran Canaria meanwhile could clinch first place in the group with a road victory. Head coach Salvador Maldonado's Grupo Dunas improved to 6-2 with a hard-fought win over Kalev/Cramo - the Spanish side's third straight victory. Gran Canaria out-shot Kalev/Cramo 48%-45% but really won the game by holding the opponent to just 5-of-24 (21%) from long range.
And Maldonado knows that with that balance, his team has a good chance of improving to 7-2.

6 pts Panionios @ 1.6

Ludwigsburg - BC Kalev/Cramo
Ludwigsburg will be looking to make it two in a row as it welcomes BC Kalev/Cramo in a Group G encounter. Head coach Silvano Poropat's Ludwigsburg finally won its first game of the ULEB Cup, beating Slask Wroclaw at home to improve to 1-7. The German team out-rebounded Slask 35-23 to survive 20 turnovers and being out-shot 45%-48%.
But it can give the home fans one more reason to celebrate before exiting the ULEB Cup. Kalev/Cramo meanwhile is not mathematically eliminated but needs plenty of help - starting with a victory on the road. Head coach Veselin Matic's Estonian team lost its fourth straight game in falling at Gran Canaria. Kalev/Cramo was out-shot 45%-48% but really lost the game by hitting just 5-of-24 (21%) from long range.
Matic's team is looking to sweep Ludwigsburg after winning by four points in Week 4 as Kalev/Cramo turned the ball over just 10 times. Matic's men will need to play controlled ball to improve to 4-5.

4 pts under @ 1.9

BC Kyiv - Lukoil Academic
BC Kyiv will remain in first place with a victory at home over Lukoil Academic in Group H. Head coach Tomo Mahoric's Kyiv improved to 6-2 and booked its spot in the elimination rounds by beating Pau-Orthez on the road. The Ukrainian side out-shot Pau 48%-42% and turned the ball over just 12 times.
Mahoric's troops will be hungry to reverse a Week 4 loss at Lukoil Academic as it turned the ball over 16 times. Lukoil Academic meanwhile will clinch a spot in the next round with a victory. Head coach Zeljko Lukajic's Academic hopes to rebound after losing at home against Benetton Tamoil to fall to 5-3 and snapping a four-game winning streak. The Bulgarian champs shot 51% from the floor and committed just 11 turnovers - only to see Treviso shoot 55% and turn the ball over only 7 times.
Playmaker Willie Deane paced Lukoil with 28 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals. Center Pero Antic collected 17 points, 14 rebounds and 4 assists while small forward Nenad Canak (15 points) and small forward Larry O'Bannon (14 points) both scored in double figures off the bench. Lukajic will need that balanced extra production to pick up a tough road win.

5 pts Over @ 1.9

Australian Open czas zacząć!

Żałuję, że wczoraj nie mogłem nic naskrobać, bo pierwszy dzień w Australii nie przyniósł wielu niespodzianek. Największą oczywiście okazała się porażka Murraya - jednego z 3-5 głównych faworytów do zwycięstwa w turnieju według masy ekspertów, w tym pana Fibaka. Ostatnia runda eliminacji, pierwsza runda turnieju głównego okazały się bardzo zyskowne. Czemu więc dziś miałoby być inaczej? Zwłaszcza, że kolega Andre Silva nakreślił bety, które po prostu nie mogą się nie udać! A na koniec... fajny kuponik ode mnie.

Przepraszam za niewielką ilość aktualizacji w ostatnich kilkudziesięciu godzinach, ale jestem w trakcie dogłębnego analizowania jurzejszego ULEBu. Przeanalizowałem wszystkie mecze, ułożyłem stawki i linie do większości z nich, zabawiłem się we wróżkę. Kilka minut temu pojawiły się pierwsze kursy. I... jestem w SZOKU! Jutro będę bogaty, a Wy razem ze mną. Do zobaczenia po południu!

MORIGAMI-KRAJICEK
The main news for this match is that Krajicek is injured and she will only play this match because this is a Grand Slam. She has an elbow injury and she can't even beat a proper backhand, as she showed in an interview to a Dutch TV. She has only played one match this season, so besides the injury that will prevent her to play proper tennis, she will also be rusty and with lack of match pratice for this match.

Morigami is 0-2 SU this season, but that doesn't take her away her quality on hardcourt. She is also very experienced (28 years old) and she will surely take advantage of the problems Krajicek will have in playing proper tennis.

This was an easy pick to make. Krajicek is injured and she is going to face a good player on hardcourt, that has played more than a dozen of Grand Slam main draws. Take the Japanese Morigami in here.

6 pts Morigami @ 1.9

PIRONKOVA-GOVORTSOVA
Pironkova showed great shape in Sydney last week with straight sets wins over Rolle and Zakopalova and a hard fought loss against Cibulkova. She is 4-4 SU in Grand Slam 1st rounds and she never loses a match without pulling out a big fight. That's the reason why she has beaten Venus Williams in the first round of the AO in 2006 and Anna Lena Groenefeld in the first round of Wimbledon when she was a Top 15 player. That's also why she took Serena Williams to three sets in RG last season. Pironkova is way more talented than her ranking shows and she's expecting a great season to try to reach the Top 50.

Govortsova promised a lot in last year's Summer hardcourt season with some amazing wins, but she is in bad shape right now. Her 6:3 6:2 loss at the hands of Edina Gallovits last week in Hobart shows it. Sometimes it's hard when you're young and you have to confirm your status after being one of the big revelations of the previous season.

Pironkova is a very tough player and she can step it up her level of tennis in the Grand Slams. Govorstova is 2-2 SU and 0-2-2 ATS in Grand Slam matches, showing that she is still struggling to perform well in the big ones. Take Pironkova minus the games in here.

6 pts Pironkova @ 1.6

PARMENTIER-MULLER
Parmentier went 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS on hardcourt in the past six months on WTA tournaments. She has also won her first title in Taskhent. All her 8 wins came in straight sets. Not even a single tie-break needed. She has also gone 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS on first round matches on Grand Slams in 2007, her first real year in the circuit.

Muller is 3-17 SU and 6-12-1 ATS against Top 100 players outside clay in the past twelve months. She hasn't won a set against a Top 70 outside clay since March, losing all the last 20 sets she has played against them.

Parmentier is simply the better player of the two and expect her to take this one in straight sets. Muller is simply too weak on hardcourt, while Parmentier is showing that she is tough to beat on this surface.

6 pts Parmentier to win 2:0 @ 1.85

ROCHUS-QUERREEY
Rochus loves to explore the weak movement of his opponents and that's why he is 3-0 vs Karlovic and 2-0 vs Guccione. He has no problems vs big servers and he has defeated big servers in his last 3 AO 1st rounds in here (Kiefer, Llodra and Guccione).

Querrey reached the third round in here last season but he defeated two out-of-form players at that time: Acasuso and Serra. Big losses recently against Koubek and Seppi in fast surfaces show that Querrey is clueless when his opponents can return his serve. Querrey is also only 4-13 at ATP level in matches played outside USA.

Rochus has too much game and experience to beat Querrey in here. The American player isn't exactly playing his best and Rochus is experienced enough to be capable to play a good match on a Grand Slam. Take the Belgian to win in here.

6 pts Rochus @ 2.0

SANTORO-ISNER
Santoro just loves to face serve & volley players: 2-0 vs Karlovic, 3-0 vs Moodie, 2-0 vs Mirnyi, 1-0 vs Zverev, 4-0 vs Arthurs, 4-0 vs Llodra, 1-0 vs Pless, 4-0 vs Carlsen. Wow! Santoro will love to face Isner, as he will return the balls to Isner's feet and there will be nothing the American giant can do against it. Santoro is 10-5 in the 1st round of the Australian Open and all his losses were against great players: Krajicek (x2), Kafelnikov, Federer and Fish. Anytime Santoro is the favorite in here, he wins. He is also in great shape, being 4-2 SU this season and also 4-2 ATS. All his losses came against players better ranked than him (Davydenko and Tursunov).

This is the first month ever Isner plays outside USA and this will be the first match ever vs Top 50 player outside USA. Isner didn't impress at all in Sydney, losing to Ivo Minar in straight sets in the final round of the qualifying. Sometimes it's hard for the American players to be capable of performing outside their country as well as they do on the United States and this is something Isner will only get that with time.

Santoro loves to play serve & volley and he is the worst matchup possible for Isner. Take Santoro minus the sets in here (he has to win 3-0 or 3-1).

6 pts Santoro @ 1.5

---

6 pts Dziewiątak @ 19.00 (!) gamebookers
Kendrick R. v Delic A. - 2 @ 1.60
Gremelmayr D. v Roitman - 1 @1.60
Gulbis E. v Safin - 2 @1.45
Zabaleta v Luczak P - 2 @ 1.30
Ventura S. v Del Porto - 2 @ 1.22
Johansson M. v Domachowska - 2 @ 1.35
Szavay A. v Makarova E. - 1 @ 1.05
Vinci v Ruano Pascual - 2 @ 1.57
Pin v Niculescu - 1 @ 1.45

Dzień w dzień coraz lepiej!

Po wczorajszym, rewelacyjnym dniu, czas na kolejny! Z powodu wyjazdu, nie byłem w stanie podać rewelacyjnego typu na wygraną Duńczyków z Niemcami (1.9-2.0) w piłce ręcznej. Wprawdzie był to mecz towarzyski, ale... to Dania jest większym faworytem do wygrania nadchodzących Mistrzostw Europy. Do tego doszedł istotny fakt - plaga kontuzji w niemieckiej ekipie. Brak trzech czołowych zawodników. Rewelacyjny kurs zrobił swoje, ja go zagrałem, ale jak już wspomniałem, nie miałem okazji go tutaj podać... Ale... mam coś w zanadrzu, i to po lepszym kursie! Oddaję głos koledze z Betonbasket.com:

GRANADA-JOVENTUT
"CB Granada needs to win this one to qualify into Spanish Cup - very important and prestigiuos competition in Spain. The coach of CB Grenada, Sergio Valdeolmillos, recovers for the match his main option at center position Curtis Borchardt and quard Samo Udrih, absent in the last match with TAU, but may Rafa Vidaurreta (not important) is out because he was injured in the car crash. The Palacio where Granada currently have one of the record in league (6-1) recorded the best entry in recent years, as they have been installed for extra bleachers and chairs and full insurance. So absolutely crazy support is expected today for the hosts in most historical match.

On other side we have Joventud which lost 5 of 6 last games and currently this team is in crisis after strong start (normal thing for top club in January and February). They have small motivation here because they already qualified into Spanish Cup. Joventud coach have big problems with a roster because Pau Ribas (plantar fasciitis), Eduardo Hernandez-Sonseca (sprained left finger), Rudy Fernandez (gastroenteritis) are questionable for this game. And Lubos Barton, who has not trained since last Tuesday due to ear infections is expected to play, but the technician, Aito Garcia Reneses registeed Pere Tomas from junior team for this match in Grenada. If this game would be regular and would not be so important for Granada and Joventud would be in optimal conditions

I would agree with this line. But in such circumstances I definetely can't agree with given odds. Granada proved that they can win against Unicaja, Girona. last year they won against Tau Ceramica. This team can win against any team in Spanish league at home and with Joventud troubles with the roster I see Granada as clear favorite with odds around 1.55-1.60.

I expect Granada to win this one by 5-10 points and hope to see them in Spanish Cup."

6 pts Granada @ 2.3

Basketball -- extremely profit!

Mnóstwo spotkań NBA, to, co lubię! Czas, kiedy buki zapłaczą jest... właśnie dziś! Spójrzcie tylko na te 3, genialnie wyglądające analizy, spójrzcie również na mój dzisiejszy max kuponik. Jest dobrze i musi być dobrze! Predykcje kolegów z SBRForum:

DENVER-MAGIC
Denver is back home in the Mile High City following their stinging 22-point loss to the Suns on Monday. Expect a strong showing from the Nuggets against the Orlando Magic.

The Denver Nuggets return home to host the Orlando Magic off a 22-point road loss in Phoenix on Monday.

Denver was no doubt embarrassed by allowing the Suns to score 137 points and will be looking to regain som respect they lost. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS this season on Friday, and 3-1 ATS so far in January. Denver is 2-0 SU and ATS versus teams from the Southeast Division this season, crushing the Wizards 118-92 in Washington on Nov 9 and enjoying an easy 115-89 home win over the Heat on Dec 2.

With Orlando off a 7-point road win, look for the home team in this series to improve to 10-0 ATS here tonight.

6 pts Denver -4.5 @ 1.9

HORNETS-HEAT
The Miami Heat are a real mess right now, as they have lost nine in a row while topping 100 points just once in those games. They are decimated by injuries, and a nicked-up Dwayne Wade alone has been unable to get them over the hump. The Hornets have gone Under in 63 percent of their games this season, and the Under is 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. the slower teams in the East. Go Under.

The Heat are a banged up club right now, as Dwayne Wade has practically carried this team by himself despite he too being nicked up. Wade scored 34 points at Milwaukee on Wednesday while no other Miami starter reached double-digits. Sure, Jason Williams has provided a nice spark off the bench, but that has not been nearly enough to spark an offense that has now failed to reach the 100-point mark in six straight games. In fact, the Heat are averaging just 91.0 points per game during their current nine-game losing streak, and if we take out their 114-point overtime performance in Orlando, they are averaging just 88.1 points in the other eight games.

The Hornets have been one of the better Under teams in the NBA this season, with the Under going 22-13, 62.9 percent in all of their games. Now, New Orleans home games are averaging 191.0 points, so their fine Under record has a lot to do with the more inflated totals when they play Western Conference teams. That is not the case here, however, as Miami is a plodding Eastern team, so the Hornets will not get caught up in a running game.

In fact, the Under is 9-1 in the Hornets’ last 10 games against the East, and we look for that pattern to continue tonight.

5 pts Under 189.5 @ 1.9

SEATLE-DALLAS
Look for Dallas to control the pace in tonight's contest in Seattle's Key Arena, and for defense to prevail. Play the Under when the Mavericks move northwest to face the Sonics. In Friday’s NBA game in Seattle featuring the Sonics hosting Dallas, the total opened at 196, and my initial take on that number is that it’s a bit too high. Seattle of course has been a sloppy team in recent years, often lacking in disciplined defense while the baskets tallied up, resulting in relatively high-scoring games. But this year, with the addition of Kevin Durant, their style has changed a bit although they are still often mistake-prone. As a result, they have trended to the Under this year, going 13-22 O/U overall and 6-10 O/U at home, according to StatFox. This stands in marked contrast to those figures from the past two years, which are 89-75 O/U overall, and 46-36 O/U at home. Dallas is also a team that is trending somewhat under in general this year at 15-18 O/U overall and 6-9 O/U on the road. They do play high-scoring games on occasion, but in general, unless they are playing a team that likes to push the pace, Mavericks games tend to be a bit more plodding and defense-oriented than the market gives them credit for. A quick glance over their games this season shows that any time a game they were in went over this posted total, it almost always involved a high-scoring team – Denver, Golden State, Phoenix – or a team that was in the midst of a high-scoring style of play at the time, like Orlando or Utah. All their other games, however, tend to see moderate totals. I think this is a game where Dallas will control the pace, play good defense, and try to keep Seattle at arms’ length and leave with a win. All in all, I’m leaning to the Under 196 here, or if you have an account at Bookmaker, 196½.

5 pts Under 196.5 @ 1.9

---

6 pts Piątak @ 2.5 (Unibet)
Denver - Orlando -- 1 @ 1.52
Lakers - Milwaukee -- 1 @ 1.06
Seatle - Dallas -- 2 @ 1.21
Golden State - Memphis -- 1 @ 1.17
Houston - Minnesota -- 1 @ 1.1

Bezbłędnie..?

Euroliga zyskowna niczym ULEB?

Jak poszło mi typowanie wtorkowego ULEBu można zobaczyć w prawej tabeli. Było lepiej niż dobrze. Czemu więc z Euroligą nie musi być podobnie?

PARTIZAN-REAL
Mój dzisiejszy rodzynek! "Partizan Igokea will look to remain on the path to the Top 16 when it hosts Real Madrid on Thursday at the Pionir Arena in Belgrade, Serbia. Partizan currently holds down the fifth spot in Group C at 4-6, but is only one win ahead of the next two teams in the standings, Lotomatica Roma and Chorale Roanne. The Serbian champs have struggled recently, losing four of their last five Euroleague games, though only one of those defeats came at home. Meanwhile Madrid boasts a 7-3 record in third place in the group and will qualify for the Top 16 this week if it defeats Partizan or if Fenerbahce Ulker beats Roanne." A więc... Fenerbahce wczoraj wygrało - Real awansował dalej. Jedyną motywacją jest walka o pierwsze miejsce w grupie z... Panathinaikosem. Szczerze wątpię, by Hiszpanie zostali liderami grupy na koniec obecnej rundy.

A co mówi trener i jeden z zawodników Partizanu?

"Real is coming to Belgrade in a moment we desperately need to win to keep our chances for the Top 16 alive. We know very well and we respect the team from Madrid. They are strong as a team first of all. With three players taller than two meters in the starting five, they are a little bit slower in defense but on the other side they are real kings of offensive rebounds. But we have quality, too. Our fans could give us wings and put Real players into a fright. If that happens we could beat the great Real Madrid."

"We are working hard to prepare for a hot welcome to Real stars. I am sure we can beat them. I am also sure it is going to be a true basketball party in Belgrade. We are ready to leave our hearts on the floor but I think it won't be necessary. Our skills and our fans are good enough for our fifth win in the Euroleague."

Motywacja większa na pewno po stronie gospodarzy. W końcu to oni przegrali wszystkie, aż 11 spotkań z Realem. Uważam, że dziś jest ABSOLUTNIE NAJLEPSZA okazja, by zmienić ten niekorzystny bilans. Zwłaszcza przy słabej formie Realu na wyjeździe...

6 pts Partizan (+6.5) @ 1.7 (Betgun)
6 pts Partizan @ 2.65
5 pts Under 155.5 @ 1.9

Siatkarski kombos

Dzisiejszy siatkarski rozkład jazdy oraz Unibetowe kursy wydają mi się kolejną (po wczorajszym, piekielnie łatwym zwycięstwie Uli) promocją!

FINLANDIA-NIEMCY
Owszem, bardzo zacięte spotkanie, bez wyraźnego faworyta. Bo nawet porażka Niemców 2-3 daje im awans do kolejnej rundy. Nevermind. Unibet wystawił przediwną liczbę punków na pierwsze dwa sety. 100 pkt?! Wynika z tego mniej więcej 26-24, 24-26 po dwóch bardzo zaciętych setach, w co absolutnie nie wierzę. Ciekawie wygląda zapowiedź Jochena Schopsa, jednego z graczy niemieckiej reprezentacji: " - Finowie przegrali wprawdzie z Serbią, ale myślę, że są równie wymagającym rywalem. Grają bardzo dobrze w obronie i przyjęciu, i dlatego musimy przede wszystkim maksymalnie wzmocnić zagrywkę – powiedział o kolejnym rywalu Schops. - To będzie z pewnością bardzo ciężki mecz, ale jeżeli zagramy na swoim najwyższym poziomie, to możemy pokusić się o kolejną wygraną. Spotkanie będzie miało dodatkowy ciężar gatunkowy, ponieważ obydwie ekipy będą grać ze świadomością, że zwycięzca awansuje do półfinału. Jestem jednak pewien, że jednym z półfinalistów będziemy my."

HISZPANIA-HOLANDIA
Wszyscy z niecieprliwością czekali na wystawienie dzisiejszych kursów na to spotkanie. Arcyważne dla nas-Polaków, arcyważne dla Holandrów, mało istotne dla zmęczonych Hiszpanów. Po pierwsze - tylko wygrana Holendrów premiuje ich do dalszej rundy. Po drugie - Hiszpanie zapewne wystawią młodzików, dając odpocząć głównych pionierom (co osobiście zasugerował Raul lozano). Po trzecie - porażka Hiszpanów oznacza, że nie zagrają oni w półfinałach z silną Serbią. Bombowo! Dla typerów, niestety nie dla naszej reprezentacji...

TURCJA-SERBIA
Serbia, aby przejść dalej, musi wygrać. I wygra, na pewno. Myśląc głębiej, Turkom może pomóc jedynie sędzia (co udawało mu się w dwóch poprzednich meczach), garstka fanatycznych kibiców (których z meczu na mecz ubywa) oraz... atak terrorystyczny! Dosłownie - absolutely no chance for Turkey!

6 pts Tripel @ 2.45 (Unibet)
Finlandia - Niemcy (Suma Punktów – Pierwsze Dwa Sety) -- Under 100.5 @ 1.42
Hiszpania - Holandia - 2 @1.50
Turcja - Serbia -- 2 @ 1.15

Noc z... NBA i NCAAB!

Niewielu polskich graczy wie, jak zyskowne potrafi być inwestowanie w NCAAB. Wystarczy poszperać w sieci, przeczytać przedmeczowe adnotacje, zajrzeć na oficjalne strony klubów a typ nasunie się sam. Tak jest właśnie dzisiaj... Za sprawą kolegów z SBRForum.com.

DUKE -TEMPLE
"Duke should benefit tonight playing Temple at the Wachovia Center instead of the Owls' true home gym. Lay the points on the Blue Devils in the 7:00 pm ESPN contest. The Dukies will have no problem dismantling Temple tonight. This game is being played at a neutral site which will further Duke’s odds of covering this small spread Wednesday. Temple is coming off a 17-point loss to Florida at a neutral site location. The Gators lost all five starters from last season and they clearly are not as good as Duke is this season with four returning starters. Temple will be overmatched once again tonight.

Temple is 0-12 ATS versus good three-point shooting teams making better than 37% of their attempts over the last two seasons. Temple’s offense isn’t explosive enough to contend with all the three-point daggers the Blue Devils will throw in Wednesday night. Take Duke and lay the points."

5 pts Duke -12 @ 1.9

CLIPPERS-ORLANDO
"Look for Orlando to snap their three-game losing skid tonight in Los Angeles. Make your play on Dwight Howard and the Magic minus the points when they face the Clippers.

The Orlando Magic will not drop four straight games tonight when they travel to face the lowly Los Angeles Clippers. The Magic are too talented and still remain one of the league’s best road teams. Orlando is 15-6 in road games this season with a 16-5 ATS mark to boot.

The Clippers are just 5-11 at home, going 6-10 ATS along the way. Injuries have really hampered the Clippers and they just don’t have a good enough lineup to keep this game close.

Orlando is 9-1 ATS in road games in non-conference games this season. Los Angeles is 2-13 ATS as a home underdog of six points or less over the last two seasons. Cash in with Orlando as the favorite."

6 pts Magic -4 @ 1.9

Uleński easy-profit!

Jestem w szoku. Tak, dosłownie! A to za sprawą kursów, jakie wystawiły buki na niektóre tenisowe mecze eliminacyjne do Australian Open. Nie, to nie jest podyktowane wynikami czy statystykami danych zawodników, oni po prostu nie wgłębili się w kilka istotnych faktów... A my z łatwością to wykorzystamy!

RADWAŃSKA - BRIANTI
Ula Radwańska (tak, tak młodsza-ładniejsza-i ponoć bardziej utalentowana z sióstr) jest obecnie numerem jeden w juniorach, ale w cyklu WTA też radzi sobie nadspodziewanie dorze. Jej największym sukcesem było osiągnięcie ćwierćfinału w Bankgoku. Tego typu zawodniczka nie powinna mieć kłopotów z zawodniczkami spoza pierwszej 100. Pokonała nawet Razzano, zawodniczkę z pierwszej 30. Ula ma naprawdę mocny serwis, silny forhand, a przede wszystkim - gra z głową. Owszem, jest bardziej zadziorna od Agi, potrafi nawet zaklnąć na korcie, ale nie oszukujmy się - to dodaje jej mocy (i uroku). Jej dzisiejsza rywalka - Alberta Brianti jest, jak się to mówi - 'completely out of form'. Według ekspertów (tych lepszych, bo większość nawet nie kojarzy tej pani), zasługuje ona na co najwyżej 300 miejsce w rankingu. W tym roku przegrała wszystkie, czyli dwa spotkania, bez ugrania ani jednego seta. Brianti ma słabiutki serwis, który Ula powinna wykorzystać, i to z uśmiechem na ustach. Jej rywalka na dodatek sprezentuje naszej zawodniczce kilka błędów serwisowych, to pewne. Brianti ma bilans 1-9 ostatnich spotkań na nawierzchni twardej, wszystkie przegrane w stosunku 2-0. Brawo, wygrała jeden mecz, ale z trudnościami, tie-breakiem w 3 secie. Kurs? Noworoczny prezent!

6 pts Radwańska @ 1.85

Kupon cacy!

Szczerze? Wygląda smakowicie... Oby bezbłędnie!

ULEBowy mega-zysk!

Nie jest tajemnicą, że od pewnego czasu to wtorki są w moim odczuciu najbardziej dochodowe. Wszystko za sprawą ULEBu, gdzie bardzo ciężko o niespodzianki, z racji na duże różnice w klasie zespołów, a także motywację. Dziś jest właśnie ta kolejka, kiedy jedna ekipa gra o życie - dalsze szanse awansu, druga - może szczerze odpuścić i poeeksperymentować ze składem.

STRASBOURG-TURÓW
"Turow have nothing to play for in France. They already clinched play off spot and Strasbourg needs to win this one to stay in promotion battle. Strasbourg is showing good results in last games (5 wins in row in LNB league) and also they all 3 games at home this season in ULEB Cup. Strasbourg is strong home team and with higher motivation and full roster should be capable of winning against Polish team which is overestimated in the line because of their table positions." -- BetOnBasket.com

6 pts Strasbourg @ 1.7

LUDWIGSBURG-ŚLĄSK
"ASCO Śląsk Wrocław do meczu przystąpi z nowym trenerem Rimasem Kurtinaitisem, który już od ponad tygodnia trenuje wrocławski zespół. Po dłuższej od innych świątecznej przerwie, wszyscy koszykarze dotarli już do stolicy Dolnego Śląska. Trener oraz zawodnicy mieli trochę czasu, żeby się poznać. Do końca rozgrywek grupowych pozostały jeszcze 3 mecze i by myśleć o awansie, wrocławianie muszą odnieść przynajmniej dwa zwycięstwa. Niemiecka drużyna mimo słabych wyników jest groźnym przeciwnikiem i koszykarzy ASCO Śląsk czeka trudny mecz, ale to właśnie podopieczni Rimasa Kurtinaitisa są faworytami tego spotkania." - Strona oficjalna "A loss in Germany would make his task of reaching the elimination round much more difficult." - ULEBcup.com

6 pts Śląsk @ 1.8

Nowe objawienia... Harkleroad i Dokic!

Na kilka dni przed Australian Open ruszyła LOKOMOTYWA. Poświęćmy uwagę żeńskiej strony mocy i od razu oddaję głos Andre Silvie, jednemu z najlepszych tenisowych typerów, z jakim miałem do czynienia:

DOKIC-TU
" Finally Jelena Dokic has made her real comeback. After several weak attempts, she has trained hard and now she comes from beating Top 100 players in a row in straight sets. She is ultra talented and a former Top 3 player and with the crowd supporting her, I can her making some noise in the Australian part of the season. Dokic combines power and technique very well and this surface is just perfect for her. She cruised in qualifying, just dropping the 1st set in the 1st round and now she has the confidence she needed to perform well today. "


HARKLEROAD-TU
"Ashley Harkleroad seems to be ready to have her best season ever in 2008. The American player after a good week in Auckland, where she defeated Emilie Loit by 6:4 6:1 and already in here, she has passed the qualifying round with three good wins, especially the last one in straight sets against Sorana Cirstea. The American finished last season in style, with great results on challengers played on hardcourt and she seems to have carried her momentum to this season. She is a nice baseliner, with some power combined with so nice technique shots and she is certainly one of the players to watch this season. "

"Meilen Tu has a terrible record on hardcourt against Top 50 players (2-8 last season) and she hasn't performed well recently. After losing her last two matches in 2007 in straight sets against two players with a ranking lower than her, Tu began this season with another straight loss and again against a player with a lower ranking than her. Tu served very poorly in that match and I think that will happen again today, as her service problems isn't exactly something new for her. She is a baseliner just like Loit, but she doesn't have the consistence that the French player has. Tu is one of the players that can play very well when she has some momentum, but when she has a bad phase, she can collect several losses in a row, unlike Loit who is too experienced to allow something like that to happen to her. "

Info--
Andre Silva Tennis Sports Picks Handicapper

6 pts Harkleroad @ 1.80
3 pts Dokic @ 3.25

Makaronowy profit?

Każdy szanujący się typer z w miarę dużym doświadczeniem zapewne dostrzegł, jak bardzo nieprzewidywalna jest liga włoska koszykówki. Powiem więcej - według mnie, jest ona najbardziej obfita w niespodzianki ze wszystkich lig europejskich! Przykłady? Benetton Treviso - Avellino. 1.30 na gospodarzy, wynik - 79:104. Avellino - Solsonica Rieti. 1.30 na gospodarzy, wynik - 75:83. Skipper Bologna - Cantu. 1.28 na gospodarzy, wynik: 69:72. Wniosek jest jeden, nie warto stawiać typów z ligi włoskiej na tzw. dobitkę, podwyższenie kursu, po niskich kursach, bo to po prostu mija się z celem. Jeśli już, warto poszukać ciekawszego typu po większym kursie. Wtedy, przy ewentualnej porażce, złość będzie nieco mniejsza. Nieco. Dlatego dziś przyjrzymy się takiemu rozwiązaniu.

Tisettanta Cantù - Angelico Biella. Bilans po 17 kolejkach: gospodarze: 7-10 (3-6 na własnym parkiecie), goście: 11-6 (3-5 na wyjeździe). Spójrzmy jak wyglądała sytuacja w ubiegłym sezonie... Cantu: 17-17 (13-4 w domu, 8 miejsce w lidze), Biella: 17-17 (zaledwie 5-12 na wyjazdzach, 6 miejsce -- lepszy bilans punktowy).

Widać więc, że obie ekipy są w miarę wyrównane, a jak to bywa w koszykówce - największą motywację w sporcie odgrywa własny parkiet. To tutaj, na własnych śmieciach TRZEBA, a przynajmniej NALEŻY walczyć ze wszystkich sił o zwycięstwo, licząc przy okazji na sprawienie niespodzianki na wyjeździe (jeśli mowa o 'średniakach'). Co do moich przewidywań. Cantu sprawiło takową niespodziankę, pokonując już Biellę w tym sezonie, na wyjeździe, pod koniec września, różnicą aż 13 punktów. Odnośnie poprzedniego sezonu. Cantu wygrało zaledwie 4 spotkania wyjazdowe, ale... fakt jest niezaprzeczalny - jeśli Cantu wygrywa na wyjeździe, wygrywa z ów rywalem również u siebie. A kurs na wygraną gospodarzy jest po prostu świetny. 1.70!

5 pts Tisettanta Cantù @ 1.70

Betony debiutanty!

Lada chwila minie pierwsza połowa weekendu. Masa spotkań została już rozstrzygnięta. I wiecie co? Bardzo dobrze! Bo kto by się spodziewał, że Tottenham ledwie zremisuje z grającym TYLKO o utrzymanie w lidze Readingiem (na dodatek w mocno okrojonym składzie)? Że Nadal będzie miał tak GIGANTYCZNE problemy ze swoim rodakiem Moyą (przy stanie 5-4 i serwisu Carlosa w 3 secie nastąpiło jedno z nielicznych przełamań Rafy, a kurs w bet365 oscylował w granicach 3.5-5.5)? Że zmęczony wczorajszym maratonem Nieminen z łatwością pokona pogromcę Hewitta - Tsongę (obdarzonego hiper mocnym serwisem i forhandem)?

Dzięki tak niespodziewanym wynikom, bukmacherzy zarabiają. Jak tego uniknąć? Hm, cięzko... Bo tutaj razem z dobrym kursem, informacją, dochodzi jeszcze większa motywacja z drugiej strony. A typ i tak okoazuje się przegrany. Jedynym sprawcą, który nie pozwoli nam wyłożyć złotówki na dane zdarzenie jest... intuicja.

Zblizą się wieczór, a więc... czas na sport amerykański!
Na początek NFL, potem NBA, dwa typy moich ulubionych typerów, naprawdę znających się na rzeczy!
Tutaj zaufam koledze z zaprzyjaźnionego forum Ubet2Win i oddam mu pałeczkę:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS- JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
"Jacksonville look to have the Steelers number , they have beaten them in each of the last 3 seasons, twice at Heinz Field, including just three weeks ago.
Jax ran for 224 yards then and Pittsburgh simply could not stop them, a beat up offensive line tonight is very unlikely to fare any better. Visitors are further boosted by the hosts being without Willie Parker, who had 100 yards of rushing himself that day. Jaguars have won 7 in a row against the AFC North and can make it 8 . Steelers confidence is very low and I just do not see how they can halt the Jaguar Juggernaut." -- -- Ubet2Win

6 pts Jacksonville @ 1.70

---

Celtics and Pistons Under 181
"The two best teams in the NBA's Eastern Conference also happen to have the two best defenses. It's not coincidence that the league's two best teams are also the league's top defensive teams. The Celtics are allowing 83.4 points per game while the Pistons are allowing 85.1. The Pistons, who won at Toronto yesterday, have seen the Under go 3-0 the last three times they played the second of back-to-back games. Those three games averaged just 171 points. For the season, the Pistons have seen the Under go 11-4 at home. These teams combined for just 172 points when they met in Boston earlier. Including that result, the Pistons have seen the Under go 65-40-1 (62%) since 2005 when facing a team with a winning record. Consider a play on the Under."-- SBRForum

6 pts Celtics-Pistons -- Under 181 @ 1.9

Noworoczna reaktywacja!

Ho-ho-ho! Po ponad półrocznej przerwie wreszcie zmądrzałem - postanowiłem reaktywować bloga, w odmienionej szacie graficznej (prostej, czytelniejszej i ładniej prezentującej się we wszystkich rozdzielczościach) oraz w rozbudowanej formule.

Dlaczgo tak długa przerwa?
Przede wszystkim studia, urlop, liczne święta.

Dlaczego reaktywacja?
Bo - nie przestałem grać. Bo - blog cieszył się dużym uznaniem (mimo tych zaledwie kilkunastu postów - najważniejsza, że informacje i skuteczność typów była naprawdę wysoka). Bo - nie zauważyłem od tych 6-7 miesięcy podobnego, krajowego bloga.

Słowem wstępu, należałoby nieco podsumować ubiegły rok.
Zestawiając w szeregu publikowane tu przeze mnie typy, największymi sukcesami okazały się (cytowane wpisy z archiwum:

• "(...)Torino-Livorno. Remis. 0:0. Kurs 1.45. Nie za duży, niestety. Podział punktów absolutnie realny. Zadowoli obie ekipy. Under jest identycznym wyborem (w niektórych bukach kursy na takie rozstrzygnięcie są większe niż na remis). Dokładny wynik: 0:0, jeśli gdziekolwiek dostępny, warty zagrania za dużą stawkę."
• "(...)Po pierwsze, od kilku dni w Topowych Meczach możecie zauważyć typ na zwycięstwo Federera w Hamburgu. Dla mnie perełka, a kurs (3.25), który zaoferował bet365 to spora nadwyżka. Nadal w każdej chwili może się wycofać, a jeśli nawet nie, przewiduję znacznie cięższy bój z Ferdkiem niż poprzednim razem."
• "Na następny ogień idzie ukochana piłka ręczna. Niemiecka: Flensburg (1.4) nie powinien mieć kłopotów z pokonaniem Magdeburga. Poziom i pozycja w tabeli obu ekip, owszem, bardzo podobna, ale forma gospodarzy (14-1-0) na własnym parkiecie to już inna bajka. Hiszpańska: C BM Torrevieja-M Valladoid: czysty under 59.5 (rzadko można trafić tak wysoką linię na tak underową ligę), statystycznym okiem, mecze w Valladoid zawsze kończyły się mniejszą ilością bramek niż u Torrevieja. A przypomnijmy, że pierwsza potyczka skończyła się 25-21. 46 bramek. Mniam!"
• "Na pierwszy ogień sam rezultat. Faworytem jest Milan. To oni prezentowali się (tyci tyci, ale jednak) lepiej w tegorocznych rozgrywkach. To oni są rządni rewanżu. Na dodatek, zdaniem wielu ekspertów, to właśnie Mediolańczycy są ekipą lepszą, bardziej doświadczoną i poukładaną. Atmosferę podgrzewają wypowiedzi trenera Milanu ("Liverpool jest znacznie gorszy od Manchesteru United, z którym to przecież wysoko wygraliśmy") oraz... Manchesteru ("Mimo, że jestem Szkotem, będę kibicował Milanowi, to znacznie lepsza ekipa i zasłużyła na triumf po tak ciężkiej drodze do finału"). 2.40 na zwycięstwo czarno-czerwonych to naprawdę sporo. Zwłaszcza, że nie wierzę już w remis i dogrywkę. Po prostu nie wierzę. 0:0 również odpada."
• "Nie jest to wprawdzie perłowa oferta (Torino-Livorno, 0:0 @ 3.25), ale profit, nawet najmniejszy, to w końcu zysk. Liga włoska, niedziela. Spójrzcie tylko na ofertę swojego buka. Dziwne? Siena - Lazio @ 1.25-1.3? Kpią sobie, czy co?! Podobnie z Milanem (zwycięstwo Regginy wyceniana jest niemal identycznie co Sieny). Powiecie: kpina. Ja stwierdzę, zsumujcie oba mecze i zagrajcie za wszystkie oszczędności. Do niedzieli możecie uzbierać całkiem pokaźną sumę, a zysk w granicach 50% to zawsze coś. Bądźcie czujnie i zwarci. Nie odpuszczamy!"

Nie chcę być zabononem, ale czy (no, może typem na Milan) widzieliście tego typu typy/informacje na innych blogach? Nie, bo takowe nie istnieją (przynajmniej u nas). Forach? Mecz.pl, Bettingadvice? Jeśli już, to na tym drugim, minimalne wzmianki, z nieznajomych źródeł. I taka jest właśnie moja misja - betlajt ma być miejscem rzetelnych i ciężko spotykanych informacji, które przyniosą porządne profity.

Podsumowując:

• Stawkowanie typów w moim wykonaniu wygląda następująco - skala szkolna (1-niewielka szansa na powodzenie, jednak patrząc na DUŻY kurs - duży value, grane za drobne; 2 - patrz punkt 1.+ większa szansa powodzenia/nieco mniejszy kurs; 3-informacja oparta przede wszystkim na statystykach, brak informacji o kontuzjach- 'typ zapchaj-dziura'; 4-solidny becik, w miarę dobre info, w miarę dobry kurs, w miarę duża stawka; 5-naprawdę solidna informacja kontuzjowo-motywacyjno-statystyczna, z fajnym kursem i 'dużą pulą włożeniową'. 6-najlepszy z najlepszych, Pinnacle wśród buków, LebronJames wśród koszykarzy, Jesica Alba wśród kobiet - PIEKIELNI dobra informacja pokryta dobrym kursem, dająca w sumie ogromny zysk!
• Prawa kolumna - tradycyjnie, Topowe mecze - obecnie grane i polecane przeze mnie spotkania, według stawek (6-1), a obok nich średni kurs dostepny w internecie, typy aktualizowane niemal codziennie, kasowane przy tygodniowych zestawieniach. Bez analiz, acz czytelne i użyteczne.