Żałuję, że wczoraj nie mogłem nic naskrobać, bo pierwszy dzień w Australii nie przyniósł wielu niespodzianek. Największą oczywiście okazała się porażka Murraya - jednego z 3-5 głównych faworytów do zwycięstwa w turnieju według masy ekspertów, w tym pana Fibaka. Ostatnia runda eliminacji, pierwsza runda turnieju głównego okazały się bardzo zyskowne. Czemu więc dziś miałoby być inaczej? Zwłaszcza, że kolega Andre Silva nakreślił bety, które po prostu nie mogą się nie udać! A na koniec... fajny kuponik ode mnie. Przepraszam za niewielką ilość aktualizacji w ostatnich kilkudziesięciu godzinach, ale jestem w trakcie dogłębnego analizowania jurzejszego ULEBu. Przeanalizowałem wszystkie mecze, ułożyłem stawki i linie do większości z nich, zabawiłem się we wróżkę. Kilka minut temu pojawiły się pierwsze kursy. I... jestem w SZOKU! Jutro będę bogaty, a Wy razem ze mną. Do zobaczenia po południu!
MORIGAMI-KRAJICEK
The main news for this match is that Krajicek is injured and she will only play this match because this is a Grand Slam. She has an elbow injury and she can't even beat a proper backhand, as she showed in an interview to a Dutch TV. She has only played one match this season, so besides the injury that will prevent her to play proper tennis, she will also be rusty and with lack of match pratice for this match.
Morigami is 0-2 SU this season, but that doesn't take her away her quality on hardcourt. She is also very experienced (28 years old) and she will surely take advantage of the problems Krajicek will have in playing proper tennis.
This was an easy pick to make. Krajicek is injured and she is going to face a good player on hardcourt, that has played more than a dozen of Grand Slam main draws. Take the Japanese Morigami in here.
6 pts Morigami @ 1.9
PIRONKOVA-GOVORTSOVA
Pironkova showed great shape in Sydney last week with straight sets wins over Rolle and Zakopalova and a hard fought loss against Cibulkova. She is 4-4 SU in Grand Slam 1st rounds and she never loses a match without pulling out a big fight. That's the reason why she has beaten Venus Williams in the first round of the AO in 2006 and Anna Lena Groenefeld in the first round of Wimbledon when she was a Top 15 player. That's also why she took Serena Williams to three sets in RG last season. Pironkova is way more talented than her ranking shows and she's expecting a great season to try to reach the Top 50.
Govortsova promised a lot in last year's Summer hardcourt season with some amazing wins, but she is in bad shape right now. Her 6:3 6:2 loss at the hands of Edina Gallovits last week in Hobart shows it. Sometimes it's hard when you're young and you have to confirm your status after being one of the big revelations of the previous season.
Pironkova is a very tough player and she can step it up her level of tennis in the Grand Slams. Govorstova is 2-2 SU and 0-2-2 ATS in Grand Slam matches, showing that she is still struggling to perform well in the big ones. Take Pironkova minus the games in here.
6 pts Pironkova @ 1.6
PARMENTIER-MULLER
Parmentier went 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS on hardcourt in the past six months on WTA tournaments. She has also won her first title in Taskhent. All her 8 wins came in straight sets. Not even a single tie-break needed. She has also gone 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS on first round matches on Grand Slams in 2007, her first real year in the circuit.
Muller is 3-17 SU and 6-12-1 ATS against Top 100 players outside clay in the past twelve months. She hasn't won a set against a Top 70 outside clay since March, losing all the last 20 sets she has played against them.
Parmentier is simply the better player of the two and expect her to take this one in straight sets. Muller is simply too weak on hardcourt, while Parmentier is showing that she is tough to beat on this surface.
6 pts Parmentier to win 2:0 @ 1.85
ROCHUS-QUERREEY
Rochus loves to explore the weak movement of his opponents and that's why he is 3-0 vs Karlovic and 2-0 vs Guccione. He has no problems vs big servers and he has defeated big servers in his last 3 AO 1st rounds in here (Kiefer, Llodra and Guccione).
Querrey reached the third round in here last season but he defeated two out-of-form players at that time: Acasuso and Serra. Big losses recently against Koubek and Seppi in fast surfaces show that Querrey is clueless when his opponents can return his serve. Querrey is also only 4-13 at ATP level in matches played outside USA.
Rochus has too much game and experience to beat Querrey in here. The American player isn't exactly playing his best and Rochus is experienced enough to be capable to play a good match on a Grand Slam. Take the Belgian to win in here.
6 pts Rochus @ 2.0
SANTORO-ISNER
Santoro just loves to face serve & volley players: 2-0 vs Karlovic, 3-0 vs Moodie, 2-0 vs Mirnyi, 1-0 vs Zverev, 4-0 vs Arthurs, 4-0 vs Llodra, 1-0 vs Pless, 4-0 vs Carlsen. Wow! Santoro will love to face Isner, as he will return the balls to Isner's feet and there will be nothing the American giant can do against it. Santoro is 10-5 in the 1st round of the Australian Open and all his losses were against great players: Krajicek (x2), Kafelnikov, Federer and Fish. Anytime Santoro is the favorite in here, he wins. He is also in great shape, being 4-2 SU this season and also 4-2 ATS. All his losses came against players better ranked than him (Davydenko and Tursunov).
This is the first month ever Isner plays outside USA and this will be the first match ever vs Top 50 player outside USA. Isner didn't impress at all in Sydney, losing to Ivo Minar in straight sets in the final round of the qualifying. Sometimes it's hard for the American players to be capable of performing outside their country as well as they do on the United States and this is something Isner will only get that with time.
Santoro loves to play serve & volley and he is the worst matchup possible for Isner. Take Santoro minus the sets in here (he has to win 3-0 or 3-1).
6 pts Santoro @ 1.5
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6 pts Dziewiątak @ 19.00 (!) gamebookers
Kendrick R. v Delic A. - 2 @ 1.60
Gremelmayr D. v Roitman - 1 @1.60
Gulbis E. v Safin - 2 @1.45
Zabaleta v Luczak P - 2 @ 1.30
Ventura S. v Del Porto - 2 @ 1.22
Johansson M. v Domachowska - 2 @ 1.35
Szavay A. v Makarova E. - 1 @ 1.05
Vinci v Ruano Pascual - 2 @ 1.57
Pin v Niculescu - 1 @ 1.45
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